GUIDE / PRICE EXTREMES
Unusual is not the same as about to reverse.
What a detrended z-score measures, and why it is not a probability.
Read the guide →INDEPENDENT MARKET RESEARCH
See the market.
Understand
the risk.
A measured approach to noisy markets. Explore price extremes, examine historical evidence, and put every opportunity in context.
CROSS-ASSET PERSPECTIVE / COMPLETED DAILY OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE OBSERVATORYSPY / USD
S&P 500 ETF
769.05-1.25σ FROM TREND
— Close ┄ Fitted trend
Different from a forecastOBSERVED 2026-10-20
Different from a forecastOBSERVED 2026-10-20
A WIDER FIELD OF VIEW
Equity indexesETFsForeign exchangeCommodities
39 CONFIGURED INSTRUMENTS01 / THE RESEARCH DESK
Three lenses. More perspective.
Move from the individual instrument to the wider market, without losing sight of uncertainty.
01 / PRICE↗
CONCEPT DIAGRAM · NOT MARKET DATA
Market observatory
Find unusually extended prices. Compare the setup with the same instrument’s historical outcomes.
Explore markets →
02 / ENVIRONMENT↗
CONCEPT DIAGRAM · NOT MARKET DATA
Market risk
Read six conditions for US equity longs. Missing inputs remain unknown, not reassurance.
Read the conditions →
03 / ATTENTION↗
CONCEPT DIAGRAM · NOT MARKET DATA
Stock discovery
Inspect where social attention meets volume and price. A watchlist for investigation, not a list of buys.
Explore stock research →
02 / A WINDOW INTO THE DATA
The saved research snapshot.
Completed-day research · not a live feed
BUILT 2026-10-21T05:19:38.807920+00:00
| INSTRUMENT | ASSET CLASS | TREND DEVIATION |
|---|---|---|
| HYGHigh-yield credit | ETFs | -2.50σ2026-10-20 |
| ^STOXX50EEuro Stoxx 50 | Indexes | -2.46σ2026-10-20 |
| ZW=FWheat futures | Commodities | -2.07σ2026-10-20 |
| ^RUTRussell 2000 | Indexes | -2.04σ2026-10-20 |
Largest absolute deviations in this saved build. Ranking is not a trade recommendation.
38 of 39 configured markets available.
03 / RESEARCH WITH RESTRAINT
Evidence first.
Conviction second.
A useful model makes its assumptions visible—and leaves room to be wrong.
Read the full method →Observe before interpreting
Start with completed price bars, source dates and coverage. A recent build does not guarantee recent inputs.
Compare, don’t extrapolate certainty
Historical analogs describe what happened under a specific rule. Small samples and changing regimes limit what comes next.
Put the outcome in NOK
Inspect costs and hypothetical outcomes for NOK 50,000 exposure. Stops, sigma and six positions are not loss guarantees.
04 / FIELD NOTES
A better way to read the numbers.
GUIDE / MARKET CONDITIONS
Six signals. No single promise.
How the environment filter combines volatility, breadth and other conditions.
Understand the framework →GUIDE / EXPOSURE
The difference between a scenario and a forecast.
Reading target payoffs, costs and historical results in NOK.
Explore the assumptions →LET’S TALK RESEARCH