TURQUETTRADING
MACRO VIEW / REGIME · CORRELATIONS · SECTORS

Market regime
& correlations.

Trend, stress and cross-asset relationships. A map of conditions, not a prediction.

Market regimeCorrelationsSector analysis
MARKET REGIME · 2026-10-23

Pullback

The long trend holds, but the shorter trend has weakened.

2 consecutive sessions · VIX 19.5 · VIX / VIX3M 0.95 · Credit proxy -2.1% over 20 sessions.

What to watch: A move above the 50-day average would restore the uptrend label; below the 200-day would weaken it.

Correlations at a glance

+1 moves together · −1 moves oppositely · 0 means little linear relationship.

US stocks / Treasuries+0.30 60 obs.

Moving together
120 obs.: +0.38

58 paired returns · 2026-10-23
Energy (XLE) / Oil+0.55 60 obs.

Moving together
120 obs.: +0.65

58 paired returns · 2026-10-23
Utilities (XLU) / Treasuries+0.56 60 obs.

Moving together
120 obs.: +0.39

58 paired returns · 2026-10-23

Historical daily returns, not a forecast. Relationships can change. A positive stock/bond correlation means less offset between their daily moves.

All cross-asset correlations →

Sector leadership & trends

All 11 US sector ETFs. Positive “vs SPY” means the sector outperformed the S&P 500 over 20 sessions.

SectorTrend20-session returnvs SPYCorrelation / SPY
60 / 120 obs.		Correlation / Treasuries
60 / 120 obs.
XLEEnergyUptrend2026-10-23+11.8%+13.4%-0.31 / -0.31n=58 / 116-0.25 / -0.38n=58 / 116
XLUUtilitiesRecovery2026-10-23+7.7%+9.3%+0.10 / +0.00n=58 / 116+0.56 / +0.39n=58 / 116
XLKTechnologyPullback2026-10-23-6.6%-5.2%+0.82 / +0.83n=58 / 116+0.08 / +0.18n=58 / 116
XLFFinancialsPullback2026-10-23+1.9%+3.5%+0.41 / +0.31n=58 / 116+0.43 / +0.36n=58 / 116
XLVHealth careUptrend2026-10-23+5.0%+6.6%+0.05 / -0.08n=58 / 116+0.34 / +0.26n=58 / 116
XLIIndustrialsDowntrend2026-10-23-3.4%-2.0%+0.65 / +0.64n=58 / 116+0.26 / +0.33n=58 / 116
XLYConsumer discretionaryDowntrend2026-10-23+2.3%+3.8%+0.66 / +0.68n=58 / 116+0.39 / +0.47n=58 / 116
XLPConsumer staplesUptrend2026-10-23+7.6%+9.2%-0.11 / -0.26n=58 / 116+0.47 / +0.29n=58 / 116
XLBMaterialsUptrend2026-10-23+3.0%+4.6%+0.38 / +0.42n=58 / 116+0.45 / +0.48n=58 / 116
XLREReal estateDowntrend2026-10-23+2.4%+4.0%+0.34 / +0.01n=58 / 116+0.57 / +0.39n=58 / 116
XLCCommunication servicesDowntrend2026-10-23-6.6%-5.2%+0.51 / +0.41n=58 / 116+0.16 / +0.24n=58 / 116

Sector trends use their own 50/200-day averages; the market stress override belongs to the overall regime. Relative performance is the change in sector/SPY, not a buy signal. Correlations use daily adjusted returns, at least 80% coverage and no missing-price filling. Missing or stale inputs remain unavailable.

Sector ETF definitions →

The wider picture

20-observation changes · Yield is in basis points; other changes are percentages.

10-year yield-20 bp
Copper-3.3%
Oil+11.8%
Equal-weight participation+4.1%

Copper and oil are growth/inflation-sensitive prices, not measured GDP or inflation. HYG / IEF also reflects interest-rate duration. Participation is RSP / SPY, not stock breadth.

The path to here

Daily market phases; missing observations shown grey2025-10-23: Uptrend2025-10-24: Uptrend2025-10-27: Uptrend2025-10-28: Uptrend2025-10-29: Uptrend2025-10-30: Uptrend2025-10-31: Uptrend2025-11-03: Uptrend2025-11-04: Uptrend2025-11-05: Uptrend2025-11-06: Uptrend2025-11-07: Uptrend2025-11-10: Uptrend2025-11-11: Uptrend2025-11-12: Uptrend2025-11-13: Uptrend2025-11-14: Uptrend2025-11-17: Pullback2025-11-18: Pullback2025-11-19: Pullback2025-11-20: Pullback2025-11-21: Pullback2025-11-24: Pullback2025-11-25: Uptrend2025-11-26: Uptrend2025-11-28: Uptrend2025-12-01: Uptrend2025-12-02: Uptrend2025-12-03: Uptrend2025-12-04: Uptrend2025-12-05: Uptrend2025-12-08: Uptrend2025-12-09: Uptrend2025-12-10: Uptrend2025-12-11: Uptrend2025-12-12: Uptrend2025-12-15: Uptrend2025-12-16: Uptrend2025-12-17: Pullback2025-12-18: Uptrend2025-12-19: Uptrend2025-12-22: Uptrend2025-12-23: Uptrend2025-12-24: Uptrend2025-12-26: Uptrend2025-12-29: Uptrend2025-12-30: Uptrend2025-12-31: Uptrend2026-01-02: Uptrend2026-01-05: Uptrend2026-01-06: Uptrend2026-01-07: Uptrend2026-01-08: Uptrend2026-01-09: Uptrend2026-01-12: Uptrend2026-01-13: Uptrend2026-01-14: Uptrend2026-01-15: Uptrend2026-01-16: Uptrend2026-01-20: Pullback2026-01-21: Uptrend2026-01-22: Uptrend2026-01-23: Uptrend2026-01-26: Uptrend2026-01-27: Uptrend2026-01-28: Uptrend2026-01-29: Uptrend2026-01-30: Uptrend2026-02-02: Uptrend2026-02-03: Uptrend2026-02-04: Uptrend2026-02-05: Pullback2026-02-06: Uptrend2026-02-09: Uptrend2026-02-10: Uptrend2026-02-11: Uptrend2026-02-12: Pullback2026-02-13: Pullback2026-02-17: Pullback2026-02-18: Pullback2026-02-19: Pullback2026-02-20: Uptrend2026-02-23: Pullback2026-02-24: Uptrend2026-02-25: Uptrend2026-02-26: Uptrend2026-02-27: Pullback2026-03-02: Pullback2026-03-03: Pullback2026-03-04: Pullback2026-03-05: Pullback2026-03-06: Stress2026-03-09: Pullback2026-03-10: Pullback2026-03-11: Pullback2026-03-12: Pullback2026-03-13: Pullback2026-03-16: Pullback2026-03-17: Pullback2026-03-18: Pullback2026-03-19: Pullback2026-03-20: Downtrend2026-03-23: Downtrend2026-03-24: Downtrend2026-03-25: Downtrend2026-03-26: Downtrend2026-03-27: Stress2026-03-30: Stress2026-03-31: Downtrend2026-04-01: Downtrend2026-04-02: Downtrend2026-04-06: Downtrend2026-04-07: Downtrend2026-04-08: Uptrend2026-04-09: Uptrend2026-04-10: Uptrend2026-04-13: Uptrend2026-04-14: Uptrend2026-04-15: Uptrend2026-04-16: Uptrend2026-04-17: Uptrend2026-04-20: Uptrend2026-04-21: Uptrend2026-04-22: Uptrend2026-04-23: Uptrend2026-04-24: Uptrend2026-04-27: Uptrend2026-04-28: Uptrend2026-04-29: Uptrend2026-04-30: Uptrend2026-05-01: Uptrend2026-05-04: Uptrend2026-05-05: Uptrend2026-05-06: Uptrend2026-05-07: Uptrend2026-05-08: Uptrend2026-05-11: Uptrend2026-05-12: Uptrend2026-05-13: Uptrend2026-05-14: Uptrend2026-05-15: Uptrend2026-05-18: Uptrend2026-05-19: Uptrend2026-05-20: Uptrend2026-05-21: Uptrend2026-05-22: Uptrend2026-05-26: Uptrend2026-05-27: Uptrend2026-05-28: Uptrend2026-05-29: Uptrend2026-06-01: Uptrend2026-06-02: Uptrend2026-06-03: Uptrend2026-06-04: Uptrend2026-06-05: Uptrend2026-06-08: Uptrend2026-06-09: Uptrend2026-06-10: Uptrend2026-06-11: Uptrend2026-06-12: Uptrend2026-06-15: Uptrend2026-06-16: Uptrend2026-06-17: Uptrend2026-06-18: Uptrend2026-06-22: Uptrend2026-06-23: Uptrend2026-06-24: Uptrend2026-06-25: Uptrend2026-06-26: Pullback2026-06-29: Uptrend2026-06-30: Uptrend2026-07-01: Uptrend2026-07-02: Uptrend2026-07-06: Uptrend2026-07-07: Uptrend2026-07-08: Uptrend2026-07-09: Uptrend2026-07-10: Uptrend2026-07-13: Uptrend2026-07-14: Uptrend2026-07-15: Uptrend2026-07-16: Uptrend2026-07-17: Uptrend2026-07-20: Pullback2026-07-21: Uptrend2026-07-22: Uptrend2026-07-23: Pullback2026-07-24: Pullback2026-07-27: Pullback2026-07-28: Pullback2026-07-29: Pullback2026-07-30: Pullback2026-07-31: Uptrend2026-08-03: Uptrend2026-08-04: Uptrend2026-08-05: Uptrend2026-08-06: Uptrend2026-08-07: Uptrend2026-08-10: Uptrend2026-08-11: Uptrend2026-08-12: Uptrend2026-08-13: Uptrend2026-08-14: Uptrend2026-08-17: Uptrend2026-08-18: Uptrend2026-08-19: Uptrend2026-08-20: Uptrend2026-08-21: Uptrend2026-08-24: Uptrend2026-08-25: Uptrend2026-08-26: Uptrend2026-08-27: Uptrend2026-08-28: Uptrend2026-08-31: Uptrend2026-09-01: Uptrend2026-09-02: Uptrend2026-09-03: Uptrend2026-09-04: Uptrend2026-09-08: Uptrend2026-09-09: Uptrend2026-09-10: Pullback2026-09-11: Uptrend2026-09-14: Uptrend2026-09-15: Pullback2026-09-16: Pullback2026-09-17: Uptrend2026-09-18: Uptrend2026-09-21: Uptrend2026-09-22: Uptrend2026-09-23: Uptrend2026-09-24: Uptrend2026-09-25: Uptrend2026-09-28: Uptrend2026-09-29: Uptrend2026-09-30: Uptrend2026-10-01: Uptrend2026-10-02: Uptrend2026-10-05: Uptrend2026-10-06: Uptrend2026-10-07: Uptrend2026-10-08: Uptrend2026-10-09: Uptrend2026-10-12: Uptrend2026-10-13: Uptrend2026-10-14: Uptrend2026-10-15: Uptrend2026-10-16: Pullback2026-10-19: Pullback2026-10-20: Uptrend2026-10-21: Uptrend2026-10-22: Pullback2026-10-23: Pullback
StressUptrendPullbackRecoveryDowntrend

2025-10-23 → 2026-10-23 · Changes can reverse quickly.

What happened next before?

Earlier Pullback observations → SPY adjusted return over the next 20 trading sessions (roughly one month).

Only 3 completed comparisons. Too few to summarize a likely outcome.

Phase 20 sessions later: Stress: 1 · Uptrend: 2.

Small retrospective sample; no validated forecast. Descriptive counts, not probabilities. Non-overlapping periods from 2024-08-14 to 2026-10-23; 551 classified sessions. Recent observations without a completed outcome are excluded. No NOK conversion, fees or trading strategy. Eight samples only enables display—it does not establish reliability.

Cross-asset correlations

+1: move together · 0: little linear relationship · −1: move oppositely. A positive stock/bond reading means bonds provided less diversification over that window.

Daily return pair60 observations120 observations
US stocks / Treasuries+0.3058 pairs · 2026-10-23+0.38116 pairs · 2026-10-23
US stocks / High yield+0.6658 pairs · 2026-10-23+0.71116 pairs · 2026-10-23
US stocks / Gold+0.3758 pairs · 2026-10-23+0.42116 pairs · 2026-10-23
US stocks / Copper+0.4658 pairs · 2026-10-23+0.54116 pairs · 2026-10-23
US stocks / Oil-0.5758 pairs · 2026-10-23-0.38116 pairs · 2026-10-23
Treasuries / High yield+0.7458 pairs · 2026-10-23+0.75116 pairs · 2026-10-23
Treasuries / Gold+0.2558 pairs · 2026-10-23+0.20116 pairs · 2026-10-23
Treasuries / Copper+0.1358 pairs · 2026-10-23+0.16116 pairs · 2026-10-23
Treasuries / Oil-0.2258 pairs · 2026-10-23-0.38116 pairs · 2026-10-23
High yield / Gold+0.4258 pairs · 2026-10-23+0.36116 pairs · 2026-10-23
High yield / Copper+0.3958 pairs · 2026-10-23+0.43116 pairs · 2026-10-23
High yield / Oil-0.3558 pairs · 2026-10-23-0.40116 pairs · 2026-10-23
Gold / Copper+0.3958 pairs · 2026-10-23+0.52116 pairs · 2026-10-23
Gold / Oil-0.1158 pairs · 2026-10-23-0.18116 pairs · 2026-10-23
Copper / Oil-0.3858 pairs · 2026-10-23-0.19116 pairs · 2026-10-23

Pearson correlation of daily returns, not price levels. No missing-price filling. At least 80% paired observations required. Relationships can change and do not establish cause or predict direction.

Rules, evidence and limitations

Stress overrides trend: VIX ≥30, VIX / VIX3M ≥1.05 or HYG / IEF 20-session change <−3%. Otherwise: above both SPY 50/200-day averages = Uptrend; above 200 but below 50 = Pullback; below 200 but above 50 = Recovery; below both = Downtrend. Equality counts as above. A missing required input prevents classification. Quotes older than four calendar days cannot establish a current phase.

Historical labels use only information through each observation. Forward outcomes use a fixed 20-session grid, excluding periods with missing classifications. The grid can affect results. Rules were not fitted to returns, but this remains retrospective, not independently validated. Roughly three years covers few market cycles. Adjusted prices can be revised; this is not a point-in-time database.

Yahoo Finance adjusted ETF prices and continuous commodity futures are proxies; futures roll effects and different closing times matter. This is a market-price framework, not an official business-cycle model. It does not replace the six-pillar risk verdict; missing breadth is still missing.

SEC guide to interpreting historical performance →
Review all six risk pillars →