0 profitable after modeled costs
Closed-trade total: — NOK
PAPER TRADING / PUBLISHED SHORTLISTS
What happened
after we found it?
Follow the original target and stop. See open experiments, exits and losses—not just winners.
Calculated 2026-11-10T11:00:58.067809+00:00
These are simulated experiments, not broker trades. “Watch only” entries never become research recommendations retrospectively. NOK results hold FX fixed.
1 profitable after modeled costs
Closed-trade total: -152,502 NOK
Totals add independent experiments; they are not an account return or a capital-limited portfolio.
The paper ledger
NOK 500,000 per independent experiment. Open results include estimated round-trip costs if closed at the saved mark.
| Instrument / category | Found / regime | Status / mark | Entry | Frozen target / stop | Exit or mark | Modeled net NOK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EEMwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-10-23Not recorded | Stop2026-11-05 · 9 sessions | 61.29002026-10-26 | 68.8541 / 59.4653 | 59.4653 | -18,549Costs: +3,663 |
| EFAwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-10-23Not recorded | Open2026-11-09 · 11 sessions | 103.12002026-10-26 | 108.3203 / 101.0343 | 104.9600 | +5,163Costs: +3,758 |
| HG=Fwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-10-23Not recorded | Stop2026-11-06 · 10 sessions | 6.50852026-10-26 | 6.8036 / 6.1815 | 6.1815 | -26,226Costs: +1,104 |
| ZW=Fwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-10-24Not recorded | Stop2026-11-04 · 8 sessions | 625.00002026-10-26 | 708.3550 / 593.1074 | 593.1074 | -26,598Costs: +1,084 |
| NG=Fwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-10-27Pullback | Target2026-10-29 · 2 sessions | 2.72202026-10-28 | 2.9792 / 2.3086 | 2.9792 | +46,116Costs: +1,123 |
| HOODwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-10-28Uptrend | Stop2026-10-30 · 2 sessions | 89.82002026-10-29 | 117.1617 / 83.8602 | 83.8602 | -37,047Costs: +3,871 |
| EURNOK=Xwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-10-28Uptrend | Open2026-11-09 · 8 sessions | 10.31892026-10-29 | 10.7702 / 10.2700 | 10.5441 | +10,119Costs: +794 |
| NOWwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-10-30Uptrend | Open2026-11-09 · 6 sessions | 104.85002026-11-02 | 146.8357 / 92.5821 | 102.7600 | -13,940Costs: +3,974 |
| IBKRwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-10-31Pullback | Open2026-11-09 · 6 sessions | 78.44002026-11-02 | 94.5128 / 70.7755 | 77.5700 | -9,537Costs: +3,991 |
| NVDAwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-10-31Pullback | Stop2026-11-05 · 4 sessions | 207.53002026-11-02 | 228.5626 / 192.1960 | 192.1960 | -40,803Costs: +3,859 |
| SI=Fwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-11-02Pullback | Open2026-11-09 · 5 sessions | 48.58002026-11-03 | 57.6192 / 46.3424 | 52.5640 | +39,850Costs: +1,154 |
| QQQwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-11-03Pullback | Stop2026-11-05 · 2 sessions | 688.43002026-11-04 | 753.6294 / 654.7406 | 654.7406 | -28,081Costs: +3,613 |
| SPYwatch · Reconstructed | 2026-11-03Pullback | Stop2026-11-05 · 2 sessions | 762.99002026-11-04 | 789.7691 / 736.0160 | 736.0160 | -21,315Costs: +3,638 |
Results by regime when found
Keep candidate and watch-only samples separate. Small groups do not establish an edge.
| Regime / category | Sample | Closed experiments |
|---|---|---|
| Not recordedwatch | 4 found / 3 closed | -4.8% average net price-only return · 0/3 profitable |
| Pullbackwatch | 6 found / 4 closed | -2.2% average net price-only return · 1/4 profitable |
| Uptrendwatch | 3 found / 1 closed | -7.4% average net price-only return · 0/1 profitable |
Entry, exit, costs and limitations
Version 1 tracks the first published appearance of each symbol in each category, once. Repeated appearances do not create repeated wins. It reads the actual archived shortlist HTML and snapshot after successful publication; failed builds and expired shortlists are excluded. Current shortlists enter the ledger after their successful release has been archived.
Entry is the next available session open strictly after the UTC publication date, never the earlier reference close or the publication day’s open. The archived target and stop are frozen. If the opening price is already outside them, entry is skipped. Stop gaps fill at the open; favorable target gaps fill at the target. If a bar touches both levels, stop wins. Otherwise exit at session 20 close. Open positions are marked at the latest completed close.
NOK 500,000 exposure per independent experiment, with no shared cash limit or portfolio compounding. NOK P&L is price-only with FX fixed: exposure × signed price return, minus the versioned Saxo cost assumptions and actual calendar holding days. Cost minimums use historical entry FX. Cash shorts are unsupported. This is not actual NOK account performance; dividends, futures rolls, execution, liquidity and broker eligibility can differ.
Older observations are reconstructed with rules introduced on 2026-11-10; later observations are marked Forward observed. Neither is live broker execution or an independently validated strategy backtest. Adjusted historical prices can be revised. If the archived reference price no longer matches the history within 0.01%, the result is withheld for review. Missing/invalid bars and stale marks are explicit. Open marks and cost assumptions can be revised on refresh; archived reports preserve each published calculation.
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